Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-09 28.661420 31.912558 35.650975 40.334899 46.147358 53.268718 62.900851
2025-03-16 24.129128 28.205596 33.321680 40.446518 50.543794 65.154579 89.848723
2025-03-23 21.026818 25.437435 31.337793 40.264399 54.439762 78.521986 131.090531
2025-03-30 18.843192 23.400596 29.809853 40.195002 58.453984 94.890357 203.834847
2025-04-06 17.002847 21.513251 28.091452 39.321561 60.768438 110.276098 322.952770
2025-04-13 16.219524 20.987341 28.257467 41.524732 69.898298 152.085498 992.641729
2025-04-20 15.067272 19.753558 27.091052 41.045115 73.204888 183.916615 5291.109955
2025-04-27 14.240795 18.912348 26.422345 41.322685 78.566258 237.487743 NaN
2025-05-04 13.571319 18.237752 25.925677 41.810435 84.918446 322.813871 NaN
2025-05-11 12.934708 17.549213 25.305379 41.886040 90.285131 442.146387 NaN
2025-05-18 12.300499 16.807294 24.496589 41.366929 93.565772 589.564693 NaN
2025-05-25 11.829430 16.294342 24.044030 41.571865 99.817433 941.437748 NaN
2025-06-01 11.322917 15.694230 23.383744 41.201478 104.038985 1575.342690 NaN
2025-06-08 10.860768 15.137965 22.753270 40.794685 108.138505 3283.328350 NaN
2025-06-15 10.436790 14.619190 22.146253 40.340053 111.979945 12561.659563 NaN
2025-06-22 10.075062 14.184817 21.664236 40.129281 117.224369 NaN NaN
2025-06-29 9.674458 13.659291 20.956433 39.186546 117.931288 NaN NaN
2025-07-06 9.584599 13.672547 21.331075 41.335422 140.269705 NaN NaN
2025-07-13 9.274168 13.273971 20.823368 40.837975 144.716057 NaN NaN
2025-07-20 9.047685 13.013762 20.582578 41.101724 155.978282 NaN NaN
2025-07-27 8.852581 12.799207 20.419268 41.578915 170.710153 NaN NaN
2025-08-03 8.640405 12.542076 20.143327 41.650536 182.612371 NaN NaN
2025-08-10 8.400744 12.223036 19.709763 41.134577 188.017241 NaN NaN